Janvi Abrol was 19 when she took a bold leap from Amritsar, India, to pursue her dream to study in Australia.
Unlike many peers facing rejection, Ms Abrol secured a spot at Federation University in Ballarat — one of the country's more affordable options for international students.
Ms Abrol, who is the Federation University student senate's equity, diversity and social inclusion advocate, said it was growing increasingly difficult for people from her hometown to secure a study visa for Australia.
She said the recently proposed cap on international student enrolments in 2025 would make it even harder.
"People who are living here give me the reactions of 'it's okay, it's going good'," Ms Abrol said.
"Obviously back in other countries they don't have such good reactions to it [the proposed cap]."
Education state slashed
New international student commencements at Australian universities and TAFE providers will be capped at 270,000 for the 2025 calendar year if parliament passes the senate-backed Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024.
The Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee tabled its report on Wednesday recommending it be passed.
But it recommended the bill be amended so the minister loses the ability to set course-level limits for universities and TAFE providers.
The law will allow universities to exceed their allocated quota if they build more student accommodation.
Data from the Australia's Department of Education shows Victoria's biggest regional university faces a drastic, and disproportionately high, cut to its overseas intake from 2,306 enrolments in 2023 to just 1,100 students in 2025.
"Federation University is one of the affordable universities which provide the degrees in an affordable range," Ms Abrol said.
"A lot of students will not apply due to financial issues, so I feel like the universities will be okay but not the international students who had the Australian dream."
'Blunt instrument'
Education Minister Jason Clare framed the new international student cap as a win for regional universities.
He said the changes would make the international student sector "better and fairer".
While that may be true for other regions across the country, Federation University — which services regional Victoria — is set to cop the biggest slash Australia-wide with a 52.3 per cent reduction in new overseas enrolments compared to its 2023 intake.
The total indicative cap for Victorian universities with regional campuses is 11,000 in 2025 — 848 spots lower than total 2023 enrolments.
Elsewhere, Western Australian universities with regional campuses are also set to cop a total reduction of 1,782 new overseas enrolments next year, and ACT regional universities will see a decrease too.
Overall, Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales, and Tasmania will have higher overseas enrolment caps than their respective 2023 intake.
Families, industries impacted
Committee for Ballarat Chief Executive Officer Michael Poulton submitted a formal complaint about the scheme to the federal member for Ballarat and Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Catherine King.
In it he described the international student profile (ISP) as a "blunt instrument".
He said the negative impacts of the cap would affect regional development and economic stability across regional Victoria.
"The numbers do not account for the unique nature of Federation University, its importance to our region, its capacity to train the skills our region needs, and the availability of suitable student accommodation," he said in the letter.
He said the cuts would affect Ballarat's economy which was reliant on student spending.
"The decision could also jeopardise the future of Federation University in our region," he said.
"The impacts will be felt by Ballarat's regional learners, families, and industries."
Ms King held a meeting with Mr Poulton and Mr Clare at parliament after receiving the letter.
She said the proposed 2025 change was a "149 per cent increase" on Federation University's 2024 intake.
'Neither fair nor sustainable'
Vice Chancellor Professor Duncan Bentley said it was not fair to base the 2025 cap on the university's 2024 intake.
"I was informed that our 2025 ISP is set on a formula related to our 2024 levels," he said.
"This is an unfair distinction applied to our university which does not consider that our 2024 enrolments were kept deliberately low to comply with new visa settings relating to the soon-to-be-revoked Ministerial Direction 107."
Ministerial Direction 107 -- implemented in December 2023 -- prioritised the processing of a student visa application based on the education provider's perceived risk.
It caused slower visa processing and increased cancellations for many universities.
The Australian government introduced the ISP caps to replace Ministerial Direction 107.
Mr Bentley said the cap was "neither fair nor sustainable" for regional areas serviced by Federation University.
He said in his 30-year career he had never seen such dire consequences — even greater than the pandemic — for universities and communities.
"All of this is hurting our ability to attract the international students that regional Victoria desperately needs to fill skill shortages, ease the cost of living and support our domestic students," Mr Bentley said.
'Big winners'
When asked how the regions could be described as the "big winners", a Department of Education spokesperson said "the Australian government's position has been clear that growth in international student numbers needs to be managed sustainably over time".
"International student profiles for the 2025 academic year have been developed taking into consideration pre-pandemic levels, recent growth, and the circumstances of universities, including international student concentration and support for regional providers," they said.
"While almost every regional university will be able to enrol more international students next year than they did last year, we also understand there will be impacts to the sector which will vary depending on individual provider circumstances."
Data from the Department of Education shows Victoria's La Trobe University is not expecting much difference next year with an indicative enrolment cap only five spots higher than their 2023 enrolment.
Deakin University's cap is 352 spots higher than last year's enrolments.
Federation University was the only one of seven schools on the Regional University Network to have its numbers cut from 2023 figures.
Elsewhere, ISPs have allowed room for several universities to grow.
The proposed cap for the University of the Sunshine Coast is 107.6 per cent higher than its 2023 enrolments, up from 578 new overseas students last year to a maximum of 1,200 next year.
A University of the Sunshine Coast spokesperson said the school looked forward to consultation on new processes.
"We appreciate the reduced uncertainty around visa approvals and greater clarity allowing University of Sunshine Coast to plan and support managed growth in international students, at least for next year," they said.
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